BIG PROBLEMS CAN BE HARD TO LOOK AT!

We all have done it. We have a big problem that we don't know how to deal with so we pretend it isn't there and get very busy with something else. Banks do this – that how we got the Credit Crunch – so do Governments – remember how the government didn't want to face the need to defend the country before WWII.

So what if there was a problem that was so big that hardly any of the people in power really wanted to deal with it because they didn't know how to. A lot of people think this is happening with energy.

Over the last 200 years we have developed a society that is supported by fossil fuel driven industrial and food production. The number of people alive has increased five times because of this and those of us in the developed world live better than the kings of 1000 years ago. The innovative drive has come from intense competition between nations and between companies. On the one hand this has been a great success story, but what happens when the supply of oil and gas isn't enough to meet world demand?  The International Energy Authority recently conducted an assessment of when this will happen and believes that before 2020 the production of oil and gas will start to decline even as prices soar.

We have to prepare ourselves for this change. We need to start thinking now about what it will mean for us when oil and gas and everything that relies on oil and gas gets impossibly expensive. What happens when the price of filling the car doubles? What happens when the same goes for  electricity and gas bills. With prices like that could anyone afford a high mortgage as well? Does that mean house prices will be going down still further? Food production and distribution uses vast amounts of energy – some say ten times as much as the energy in the food we eat. Will we still be able to afford the food in supermarkets if they are charging £2 for a loaf of bread and £1 for a can of beans and £5 for a dozen eggs and £2 for a cucumber. And if the price of energy get too high how many of us will lose our jobs? What will be the future for our children?

Its all very well the government going on about Global Warming and getting cars to be greener, but if we have no jobs and the price of everything goes through the roof what are we going to do: sit around at home, skint, hungry and cold?

If all this seems a bit far off and something that may never happen, think about how energy prices and food prices have already gone up. Think about how high energy and food prices were just before the recession started. The banks may have got their sums wrong, but it wasn't the only cause of the recession.

So what do we do. Well we can do nothing and hope its all going to get better. We can dash out and buy lots of green goodies. Or we can start thinking about it all intelligently – step by step.

What are the most important things for the survival of our families and ourselves: Food and a warm house.

So lets start with food – think about what you eat. Where did it come from? Will it go up in price if oil and gas double or treble in price? How much food could you get locally, could you grow a lot of what you need if you had an allotment? Would you agree to buy from a local farmer if there was one who would produce what you need without going through a supermarket? It might cost more now, but would be less affected by oil shortages.

Would it be better to spend money on a holiday this year or on improving your homes energy efficiency? Do you know where to get advice on making your home as cheap as possible to heat and light? Do you know what grants you could get or where you can borrow money cheaply to pay for the work?

Once you have seen to the basics, what about transport. Do you drive to work, the shops, to take kids to school. Could you do this at say £3 per litre? Will you be cursing the planners who organised everything around cheap car use?

The one clear message that comes from all the people who have looked into these issues is: prepare now! Fortunately there is a grassroots movement addressing this issue – its called Transition Towns. Starting off as a bunch of hippies and eco-freaks, the folk who have been pushing this issue are now being taken seriously as the evidence mounts. Over 100 towns and villages across the UK have become Transition Towns and are planning how their community can cope as energy prises sore. These pioneers are running ahead of the government (there is an all party committee on Peak Oil, but the government doesn't take much notice). The most advanced are working on energy descent plans with the local councils, businesses and households working together to plan for a low energy future.

Places like Bangor are not rich and need to avoid risks that we can't cope with. This is certainly a risk we need to prepare for. The big danger we have is that our cautious and conservative councils will take a “do nothing till everyone else does” stand. By then it will be too late and any advantage we might gain by being pioneers in the low energy living game will be lost.

We must demand that our local businesses and councils join us in working toward a Transition to low energy living so that we don't end up cold, hungry, out of work and with our children leaving for opportunities elsewhere. Big rises in energy costs in the years to come are not a possibility – they are a totally predictable fact – We owe it to ourselves and our children to demand that this becomes the lead priority for local government policy, but because this is something that will effect all of us, we need them to work with us – not just tell us what to do.

This is THE Big Issue – join and support the Bangor Transition group TBT and help explore how we can be resilient to the energy hunger to come.